For the Democrats, a tie vote, which means nothing changes. Sanders remains a viable candidate, and will continue to keep Clinton busy even after his win in New Hampshire, but Clinton will win the nomination. I continue to think that the Sanders challenge is having a salutary effect on Clinton, as reflected in a platform that is on the whole laudably progressive, but I must admit to some doubts. Hillary was quoted in today’s newspaper as saying that we need to “get back to the big center” politically. That does, indeed, reflect her core instincts, but it’s not the lesson to draw from Bernie’s success, or, for that matter, from Trump’s. The best way for Clinton to lose in November will be to go the voters with the message that the country’s on the right track and that there’s no reason for anybody to be angry. She needs to say that while she gives President Obama credit for important accomplishments that need to be protected, she remains dissatisfied. It’s a rather delicate balance that she needs to find.
On the Republican side, it looks increasingly likely that Rubio will carry the banner of not-obviously-crazy Republicans (commonly referred to as the Republican “establishment”) against Trump and Cruz. It would be foolhardy to predict how that three-way race will turn out, but I’m hoping Cruz wins. Hillary would smash him in November, but I’m much less confident of a similar result if she faced Rubio or even Christie or Kasich. I think that Trump would be an even weaker candidate than Cruz, but it’s impossible to want Trump to get the GOP nod. His nomination would be a disgrace for this country and a huge propaganda bonanza for jihadists the world over. Objectively, Cruz on balance is hardly better than Trump, but he doesn’t match Trump for blatant, shameless hate mongering.
I don’t think there is anyone who does a better takedown of Trump than Mother Jones‘ Kevin Drum. If Trump does win the GOP nomination, God forbid, the Dems should hire Drum as a speechwriter.