Wars and threats of war tend to generate knee-jerk responses.  Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has brought on calls for increased military spending by the US. The calls come from predictable sources, like Bret Stephens, who coincidentally sees the crisis as an opportunity to promote other conservative wish list items, like international business de-regulation (aka “free trade”) and more aggressive oil and gas extraction. But some Congressional Democrats are also now wanting to jack up the Pentagon budget.

It’s a bad idea.  The last thing the US needs is more military spending.  Consider that in 2020 the US military budget, at $734 billion, was 11 times greater than Russia’s.  It was over three times greater than China’s, and well over twice as much as China’s and Russia’s combined.  And of course, the US armed forces aren’t alone in the world.  Unlike Russia and China, we have allies, who, despite American complaints, are hardly pikers when it comes to arms spending. Our three largest NATO allies (Germany, France and UK) alone spend almost three times as much as Russia.

So, here’s a thought experiment:  Suppose that last year the US had increased its military budget by 15%.  That would be a truly gargantuan increase, more than anyone would propose at this point, but just suppose. That would have increased the ratio of US to Russia military spending from 11:1 to 13:1. Does anyone imagine that such a change would have prevented Putin from moving into Ukraine? Anyone, really?  Of course not. Which should be enough to dispose of any claim that the current crisis shows that we need to throw more bucks at the Pentagon.